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Confidence Labels

Confidence Labels

What High, Medium, Low, and Unconfirmed mean on Sourced Signal.

Labels

Confidence is not the same as importance. A low-confidence item may be important, but it should be treated cautiously.

High

Definition
The core fact is strongly supported.
When to use it
Use when there is official confirmation, multiple reliable sources, or direct public evidence with little contradiction.
What it does not mean
It does not mean the future outcome is certain or the assessment cannot change.
Example wording
Official confirmation and consistent independent reporting support the event.
Common mistake
Do not use High for a confident-sounding single claim.

Medium

Definition
The core fact is credible but some context remains incomplete.
When to use it
Use when reporting is credible, partially corroborated, or officially claimed but still developing.
What it does not mean
It does not mean the item is unimportant.
Example wording
Credible reporting supports the event, but intent and second-order effects remain unclear.
Common mistake
Do not hide uncertainty by calling everything Medium.

Low

Definition
The item may matter, but the public record is thin, early, or contested.
When to use it
Use for single-source or unclear reporting that is still plausible and relevant.
What it does not mean
It does not mean false.
Example wording
One credible outlet reports the event, but there is no independent corroboration yet.
Common mistake
Do not build strong analysis on a Low-confidence claim.

Unconfirmed

Definition
Not treated as fact.
When to use it
Use for early social, adversary, or observational claims that need verification.
What it does not mean
It does not mean publishable fact or settled reporting.
Example wording
A public video appears relevant, but time and location are not verified.
Common mistake
Do not write as if an Unconfirmed claim happened.