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Source Reliability Guide

Source Reliability Guide

How public sources are categorized, used, and caveated.

Source Types

Social platforms and similar channels are treated as signals, not confirmation by themselves.

Official statement

What it is
A public statement, release, filing, regulation, budget, or announcement from an official body.
Why it can be useful
It can confirm what an actor says it did, intends to do, or wants others to believe.
Limitations
Official sources can omit context, frame events selectively, or lag events on the ground.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used for confirmation and stated positions, then compared against independent reporting when possible.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Sometimes, for the stated position itself. Usually not enough by itself for broader assessment.

Established media

What it is
Reporting from outlets with editorial processes, corrections norms, and named institutional accountability.
Why it can be useful
It helps establish sequence, actors, public context, and corroboration.
Limitations
Early reporting can change. Some details may rely on unnamed officials or limited access.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used as baseline reporting and compared with official, specialist, or observational sources.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Sometimes, if multiple reliable outlets agree or the reporting is directly documented.

Specialist analysis

What it is
Work from think tanks, domain experts, defense analysts, regional specialists, and technical researchers.
Why it can be useful
It adds context, constraints, and competing interpretations.
Limitations
Analysis is not a fact by itself and may reflect assumptions or institutional perspectives.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used to understand implications and caveats, not as sole confirmation of an event.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Rarely by itself. Strongest when paired with facts and transparent methods.

OSINT observation

What it is
Publicly available observations such as imagery, geolocation, flight tracking, maritime tracking, or public video.
Why it can be useful
It can show visible activity that reporting may not fully capture.
Limitations
It can be misread without time, location, chain-of-custody, and corroboration checks.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used as an observation signal and labeled carefully when not fully corroborated.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Sometimes for narrow visible facts. Not enough by itself for intent or attribution.

Adversary or state media

What it is
Public media or official channels controlled or influenced by a state actor.
Why it can be useful
It can reveal narratives, signaling, official claims, and propaganda priorities.
Limitations
It may blend fact, omission, exaggeration, and political messaging.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used cautiously as a signal of stated position, not as neutral confirmation.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Only for what the source claims or signals, not for whether the claim is true.

Unconfirmed claim

What it is
A claim that may be strategically relevant but lacks adequate corroboration.
Why it can be useful
It can identify an issue worth watching early.
Limitations
It may be wrong, misdated, mislocated, exaggerated, or intentionally misleading.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Held for review, labeled clearly, or excluded until stronger support appears.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
No.

Social discussion signal

What it is
Public discussion from social platforms, including expert posts and community discussion.
Why it can be useful
It can surface early leads, expert debate, and questions worth checking.
Limitations
It is not confirmation. Telegram, Reddit, Bluesky, X, and similar platforms are treated as signals only.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used for discovery and monitoring, then checked against stronger sources.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
No.

Strategic document

What it is
White papers, budgets, strategies, rules, laws, speeches, doctrine, and other durable public documents.
Why it can be useful
It gives baseline policy, priorities, constraints, and long-term context.
Limitations
Documents may be aspirational, outdated, or disconnected from implementation.
How Sourced Signal uses it
Used for context, baselines, and policy comparison.
Can it support High confidence by itself?
Often for stated policy or budget text. Not by itself for implementation outcomes.